Twenty398

How RED and a messed up economy will revolutionize everything… back to how everything was – pre DV. Or: Time for a cold shower if you are a gold-digger and not serious about your commitment.

These are hard times. With posts like these popping up:

http://www.reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?t=25850

http://newbreed.workbookproject.com/2008/12/red-one-rentals-impending-crash/

http://www.reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?t=25858

It’s time to think seriously through any investment of any kind and what you do and why you do it. Even more is NOT written. People and companies are selling off their gear at high rates. Dalsa, Grass Valley and Quvis have thrown in the towel. I was underbid by Panavision UK on a small Norwegian feature. Panavision! Go figure. Panavision! «Service first!». Hey! I am a really small shop in the middle of nowhere! Panavision gave away optics, Genesis, support and accessories, for less than the rebated price of a Master Prime set for a feature.

No one is mentioning the bankrupcy word, or the insolvency word. But it’s often: Cash on delivery when people are realizing their assets. Please – no account transactions. Credit is gone. The money you have under your pillow is real.

Heck. You can even get some good glass these days. Optics have been rare for a year and a half, if you’ve been looking. But now. It’s not cheap yet, but still. Everyone tend to look brave about it to keep the prices up, but it’s happening.

I know that I literally heard Lehman Brothers go bust. The phone stopped ringing. The mailbox went empty. I dunno how many handshakes I am away from them, but I do know I’m not living in NY. Still the silence was ear-shattering. Almost immediately.

I read an article in a Norwegian newspaper about the commercial-industry here. Not one single new major contract signed for any of the big producers, that wasn’t negotiated by August 2008. But quite a few cancelled. There’s not one good reason to go public with bad news like this for a production company, but to fend off their creditors.

And I tend to agree with Jim. We haven’t seen the worst part yet and it’s not over by July.

Not this or the next July at least. It’ll get a lot worse before it gets better. And last time I checked, none of the governmental finance «packages» went to the movie industry, be it indie, big-time or ad-agencies. We’re in for a bumpy ride… On TV I mostly see poster-like «powerpoint» or recirculated ads.

I didn’t predict the finance crisis. But when discussing the RED investment with my partner back in 2006, I said:
Expect a RED to rent for about the price of an HVX when the backorders are filled. Too many people who cannot handle the tool technically or story-telling wise will buy it, because they see the beautiful images it can give them. At that price point, the market will be flooded. Too many people will not realize that technical potential is not what touches the general public. 6 months after the backorders are filled, you will see RED packages going at around 50% of purchase price.

The price of optics will skyrocket if RED cannot deliver the promised prime-set in due time, when the demand becomes thousands of sets a year in a market that is used to hundreds. We just have to be good. And it will still be a rocky road.

I was wrong. My predictions were too optimistic. I have seen RED ONE packages with optics (Zeiss standards), FF, matte box and good support (O’Connor 2075) at 250$ day rates already in November last year. For the front page rates of any Norwegian rental house, you are just allowed to take a look at the O’Connor for that price. You are not allowed to even take a close look at the S4/Master Prime set of optics you’ll need to pull off «that shot»… And despite the Epic-X upgrade offer, I think you can pick up a RED ONE for 8.000,-$ today, if you can stomach the wait and have the cash. To pay fast.

And who am I to complain? We ROI’ed the cam-package after one month of pure testing and one month of work. So. Shut up! Don’t be so gloomy! Go buy that dream!

The future is bright and we all should wear rosy shades….
So… Buy a RED or not at this stage? And what if you have one. And what to do?
Consider the following ramblings and not «take to court business advices…»

Because, if you do – I’ll deny ever having written them.
Ultimately this business – being: Doing commercials, corporate, music-videos, shorts, «independents», or long form films – is about touching peoples feelings. Making «the audience» glad, sad, horny, angry, revolted, craving for, disgusted, happy, interested in, or enlightened. And make them take a glass of wine afterwards and fuck their brains out – or buy that car. It’s about giving people irrational experiences and do irrational choices. It’s about making them feel part of life and in touch with themselves and the world in general.

It’s about being able to manipulate.

And that takes a lot of talent, skill, and rationality. And craft, gear and people… And I promise you: In no way you can pull this off on your own. That’s just plain stupid to think. There are those rare exceptions, but don’t even think about them.

Think of a great symphony orchestra. Or band. Every single musician is spending 10+ hours a day focusing on their individual skills – to be able to pull off “The rite of the spring”, a piece by Xenakis, “Carmina Burana” or Beethoven’s 5th … for the 100th time. And guess what. Not a single one of them are the director, wrote the music, made the budgets or found the audience that made it possible to sound great. Or lame, as it does on occasional days – even with all that effort. But every single one needs an instrument it is not possible to pay down on a «normal» salary. And 10 hours of focus per day to play their unique part. That is unless you only play the piatti and stay out of the Xenakis stuff…

Then, take this into consideration. Ingmar Bergman has said something in the ballpark of: «My first 15 films sucked. Then I started to understand how to do this thing».

For a film you need the whole lot of actors, accountants, lighting crew, director, catering, + the composer, script, gear and eventually: The whole frickin’ symphony orchestra – to really pull it off.

I once saw a breakdown on an early Disney Cartoon – I think it was Snow white. For one man to do the animations only – forgetting about the script, the dramaturgy, the music, the voice over, the promotion or the pure idea – it would take 130 years of regular 10 hour days.

But, when making films or commercials – people all of a sudden think that it is possible to cover all those crafts by themselves.
Fine. This is bad. I sound like a pessimist. Am I saying that you shouldn’t buy a RED? And that the economy makes this even worse?

Not at all! The opposite actually. Really. Pursue that goal. Be passionate! BUT be realistic about what is needed to pull it off. RED ONE is only a part of the equation. A really good, and until recently totally unreachable part – potential wise. But, ask yourself this: Why do you think Christian Bale can do an obnoxious thing like what we heard from the Terminator set and still be hired? Or Klaus Kinski? I think it is because he manages to touch us. He is good at what he does.

That’s it.

If he only was an irresponsible obnoxious drunk, spoiled kid – we wouldn’t care or discuss it. The chap’s got talent. And focus on it. To an annoying degree – true enough. But it pays. For him. For the producers. And for us – the audience.

So, if there ever was a good time to define your talent. This is it. The business is bust. Most of the big companies are too. But people still want to feel those emotions you can serve them. RED ONE is a good and cheap tool for that.

This is actually a time of opportunity where new wealth will be made. But if you’re looking into those opportunities, know that the reason you buy a camera is more important than that you have it.

RED ONE – the camera – doesn’t make a movie. It’s a great tool for movie making, but you will have to define where you fit in, if you want to make visible and good productions. Whether that’s the rental business, lighting department, accounting or directing, writing or DP’ing. You’re a part of an orchestra.

I am not saying you cannot cover several functions successfully. Many have. But even more have failed. If you see that you are good at grading, that doesn’t mean that you’re good at directing, even though both functions are needed to make a good film and they in many ways are related. But so are DP’ing, composing music, script-writing, dramaturgy and accounting. You’ll have to deal with that the different functions don’t necessarily have an understanding of the needs of the other departments. (If you put on your pink glasses: That can be part of the fun!)

Do you really think you can handle all that?

I don’t. Prove me wrong!

What am I saying here? Don’t buy a RED and find a job as a mall cashier?

Nope. Really not! But I say that this is the time for educated choices, passion and focus. THEN and only then you’ll survive… Maybe… Trust yourself. Ultimately in this economy – you are your only durable asset and the only success formula. Be it small scale or big scale. And maybe you DO need a RED or five to prove that!
So this all comes down to, good or bad reasons to buy a R1 these days

Good:

You are in the rental business, are liquid and want to see the glass and accessories moving.

This is a no-brainer. R1 is cheap and good, and the HVX kids are curious! Throw it in for free and take good prices for your glass and accessories. Have you looked at the price for a 435 or HPX 3000 with an adaptor recently? Just go!

You want to get into the rental business, have the connections and are liquid for a couple of years

Yup. Now is the time. Everyone and his aunt are selling off their assets at good prices. Optics are still risky, but everything else is cheaper than ever before. If you know you are liquid for the next three years, go for it! As to why to invest in a R1… See the above argument.

You have a project/projects to realize and can pull out the cash for RED ONE and basic optics.

Also a non-brainer. R1 gives you access to many of the aesthetics of 35MM at a fraction of the cost – rental or otherwise. With small budgets, gear is the dominator. Go get that camera. You cannot rent gear for less. You’ll have time to experiment and re-shoot until you «got it right»

You are a big TV-house, or commercial production company with financed films to make.

Sure. But buy one or two more than you know you need, so that when one goes down, you have a spare. Is R1 not reliable? Not at all! The opposite actually. But if you don’t have an extra camera when one goes down, 18.000$ is peanuts.
You’ve been into the high-end/high-def business for a while and see a lot of business go to untalented kids with REDs.
Also a no-brainer. Get the R1 and a B4 adapter and you’re up and running. You can brag about RAW and down-sampling (to a degree) and all your other gear is still useable. That SR deck is still fantastic for mastering. Also a good set of PL primes can be picked up for relatively cheap these days.

You love photography and can afford the kit, inclusive lenses and post gear.
Well… Just buy it. You can’t have more fun for less cash these days. No way!

So… what are the really bad reasons for buying R1 these days
Well… There are a few…
The R1 body is dirt cheap for what it does. Who can complain?

RED’s achilles heel has been workflows. They were never hard. Really. They were easy, accessible and plentyfold almost from the get-go, and THAT created a lot of confusion… It was too film-like to understand for the video-crowd, and the film crowd tried to approach it like video. That made some mess-ups. Now we’re getting over that.

For a while now, Assimilate has given us the only realtime 2k RAW solution for online, but now it seems, Filmlight has managed to take up the glove.

Filmlight has come up with a 30,000E post solution for realtime RED RAW workflow

:
http://www.reduser.net/forum/showthread.php?p=363990
Seemingly giving Assimilate a good run for their money. Iridas has had «internal» builds of their software doing this, too – for a while, and if someone is figuring out Color’s gamma-infidelity, you have a 1,500$ tool doing 2k RAW for most online applications right now.

The meaning of this being?
Yup. R1 is cheap and has close to limitless possibilities… IF and only if you or someone close to you familiarize themselves with workflow from set to delivery. It’s not hard, but it needs to be understood. Most likely RED will behave differently than anything you’ve been using earlier, and things that look familiar, just don’t have the same implications on a RAW camera. The potential is vast, but she’s a sour lover if you treat her bad…
Spend some time, and you’ll be infinitely rewarded. Don’t, and get kicked in the but.
So, onto the bad reasons to buy a R1 these days

.
You have some projects and hope to cover «the rest» over rentals.
Ouch. Most likely: Double-ouch, as you probably will not have a good sense of total cost of usage. The body is just that: A body.
I find it tiring that some always point out that you need support, optics and a post system for R1 – as you’ll need that for ANY camera. But some seem to forget. The 200$ 8GB flash card from REDs shop, is not really what should make you feel good or bad about the investment. It is a drop in the ocean.
 AND the rental-business is a really easy business. You rent out gear at a rate of 1%-2,5%
pr business day and give discounts for longer periods. Take that calculus and sober up. Check my Panavision experience and come back

RED ONE is a film-like camera. You want to get into the film business. This is a good start.
Nope. It’s not.
The «film business» is about storytelling and – for all practical reasons – handling the tools and people to tell that story. You have a better shot with a PD-150 and a good script, than with a complete R1 kit on its own.
If you have the customers. Go ahead! But these days, they are rare. And hunted by many with a great lot of kit.
You have this really cool gig next month and R1 would make it even cooler. You just will have to cut the audio and post expenses to pull it through
Yes! Sure! But if you haven’t spent some time testing and don’t have access to people who have, don’t! The money is better spent renting a R1 with workflow and kit from someone who knows what they do. Spend that time learning, and spare it for the next gig. Going into a R1 shoot for the first time without an audio-person and recording directly to the camera is close to suicidal. Even with the upgraded audio boards. You won’t get that happy customer and you won’t get that next gig.

The point of all these ramblings?
R1 and the current crisis is revolutionizing everything… back to «normal».
People don’t buy kit. People buy talent.
People go to the movies in the millions to watch «City of God» and «Bourne». Not to gauge DOF, resolution and watch camera-angels. Not conciously – at least. Ever wondered why IMAX was never a worldwide commercial success? It should have been, right?
R1 has a great potential for expression, if you’re talented and in the know.
But make sure that people hire YOU, not the camera. Because the camera is dirt cheap and plentyfold. You don’t want to be that?
If these times have left you with some spare time – and maybe a R1 – don’t despair. Use it. To be a better… DP? Director? Salesman? Whatever. This is a golden oportunity to establish yourself. It’s a really bad opportunity to propagate gear. Of any kind.
The moral of all this?
Be focused
Hone your skills
Experiment

Be better

Because “Normal” used to be that people were hired for their skills, not their kit. And we’re finally heading bigtime back that route – even though it has seemed for some years like that wasn’t the case. But the chain of supply and demand is adjusting – after a credit-blown-up period with a collapse of gear prices and the economy. Don’t expect those times to come back anytime soon. This is actually normality. And on the long run, probably the best for all of us.

But, by all means: Use a R1 if you have access to it. It won’t hurt.

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